Steep U.S. tariffs are starting to squeeze the Chinese economy.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

The gesture comes as the fallout from the trade war has begun to show in China’s economic data, with factory activity in April dropping the most since 2023 as export orders dried up. Yuyuan Tantian, an account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV,