"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

The United States and the European Union agreed on Sunday to a trade framework setting a 15% tariff on most goods, staving off — at least for now — far higher imports on both sides that might have sent shock waves through economies around the globe.