Among Americans overall, 63 percent say there’s at least a “moderate risk” of AI destroying humanity, versus just 22 percent ...

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

Back at the OG version of FiveThirtyEight.com in 2008, we ran a daily feature called “Today’s Polls”. It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 ...

Two years ago on this date, we were still in the waning days of Brat Summer. Kamala Harris reached her peak in our presidential forecast on Aug. 14, though she’d never really achieved escape velocity, ...

In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast — now named FLIPR — on Tuesday. On balance, the model is bullish on Democrats’ chances in November. But while it currently rates the House ...

Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the ...

However, this is one of those cases where the headline doesn’t tell the whole story. A 1- or 2-point win for El-Sayed would be much narrower than the results predicted by polls; the last seven surveys ...

Following the successful passage of his redistricting referendum in California last November, California Gov. Gavin Newsom began the year as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination. But ...

Trump’s second term and the forest for the trees, a.k.a. what happened to the 113 Trump predictions follow-up article? In any event, I finished PELE last night. (About a week or so ahead of schedule; ...

LOL I wish there were a way to short this business this is maybe the single worst use case for AI I've ever heard. Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at ...

The last time I did a check-in on President Trump’s popularity in November, I noted that the decline in his approval ratings had been remarkably linear. There have been peaks and valleys, sure, which ...