We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure ...

How much liability should AI providers bear when their services enable both attack and defence? Liability can improve welfare while increasing harm. Providers sell a common input to productive users, ...

This paper studies the effects of population growth on welfare in an OLG model, in which lower population growth raises output per worker but also reduces the ratio of workers to retirees. Under ...

We consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry. We find that the government sources we ...

We study optimal tariffs in a model consistent with these facts. Firms pay a fixed cost to import and charge markups that increase with size. Market power implies that importers are too few and too ...

What caused the historically unique volatility in American homicides since 2019, driven by gun homicides? While there is no shortage of candidate explanations, a coherent understanding has been ...

This paper documents large indirect mortality impacts of climate change. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C of warming increases annual mortality by 2.5 deaths per ...

This study examines a housing program that created affordable infill developments on formerly vacant, abandoned, or disinvested properties in Savannah, Georgia. Savannah is a major economic hub ...

Yet evidence shows that households hold heterogeneous subjective models---distinct beliefs about how macroeconomic variables interact. As a result, identical shocks or policies may elicit different ...

Development accounting is the search for proximate sources of cross-country income differences. This article describes how knowledge in this field has evolved over the two decades since the ...

This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems ...

This paper estimates the causal effect of fertility on mothers’ work arrangements, with a particular focus on remote work. Using harmonized individual-level data from the American Community Survey ...